Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2511 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2511 DFW 07:28 → FLL 11:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1882 DFW 16:10 → FLL 20:10 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2511 American	DFW 07:28	FLL 11:39	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
B6 2282 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 07:00	FLL 10:57	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 1390 American Flight history →	DFW 11:11	FLL 15:02	15%	3%	0.9%	67%
AA 1373 American Flight history →	DFW 12:40	FLL 16:30	15%	5%	1.2%	77%
AA 3220 American	DFW 11:40	FLL 15:23	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1847 American Flight history →	DFW 19:05	FLL 23:07	19%	8%	1.3%	62%
F9 3318 Frontier	DFW 13:27	FLL 17:35	23%	7%	1.2%	no record
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 16:10	FLL 20:10	23%	10%	1.2%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON