Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3820 at 15:11 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3820 DFW 15:11 → FSD 17:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2937 DFW 17:35 → FSD 19:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3820 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:11	FSD 17:29	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 2872 American Flight history →	DFW 10:05	FSD 12:32	21%	6%	1.0%	65%
AA 2937 American Flight history →	DFW 17:35	FSD 19:44	33%	10%	1.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON