Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AA 1381 at 10:04 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1381 American Flight history →	DFW 10:04	GEG 11:54	20%	6%	0.6%	75%
AA 2757 American	DFW 18:52	GEG 20:34	31%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:03 → GEG 11:44DL 566	8h 24m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 12:19 → GEG 13:21DL 2437	8h 26m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 27m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49AS 646	2h 27m Portland	PDX 22:16 → GEG 23:25AS 1345	7h 40m	98%	83%
American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	3h 00m Phoenix	PHX 10:34 → GEG 13:31AA 540	8h 23m	98%	83%
American Details →	DFW 04:52 → ORD 07:25AA 1938	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 09:50 → GEG 12:08AA 677	9h 16m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503	5h 38m	92%	81%
Alaska Details →	DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 18:12 → GEG 19:23AS 2054 · flown by Horizon	8h 21m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON