Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3167 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3167 DFW 08:53 → GRR 12:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 571 DFW 19:24 → GRR 23:04 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3167 American Flight history →	DFW 08:53	GRR 12:24	14%	3%	1.6%	85%
AA 310 American Flight history →	DFW 13:03	GRR 16:32	24%	7%	1.2%	62%
AA 571 American Flight history →	DFW 19:24	GRR 23:04	30%	8%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON