Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3886 at 09:29 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3886 DFW 09:29 → GSO 13:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2242 DFW 13:43 → GSO 17:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3886 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:29	GSO 13:10	6%	1%	0.7%	91%
AA 1316 American Flight history →	DFW 19:17	GSO 22:56	31%	5%	1.3%	56%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	DFW 13:43	GSO 17:20	33%	6%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON