Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4036 DFW 07:54 → HOU 09:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3391 DFW 18:17 → HOU 19:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:54	HOU 09:14	8%	3%	0.5%	88%
MQ 4127 Envoy	DFW 12:13	HOU 13:33	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4126 Envoy	DFW 15:15	HOU 16:35	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:51	HOU 11:25	11%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:27	HOU 13:53	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	DFW 17:03	HOU 18:25	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6458 SkyWest	DFW 09:47	HOU 11:07	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:17	HOU 19:37	14%	2%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON