Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3476 DFW 07:18 → HSV 09:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5383 DFW 12:00 → HSV 14:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:18	HSV 09:26	8%	1%	0.7%	94%
AA 4278 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:30	HSV 23:26	9%	2%	0.7%	70%
AA 3967 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:00	HSV 15:56	11%	2%	0.8%	88%
OO 6302 SkyWest	DFW 09:47	HSV 11:50	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5380 PSA	DFW 21:38	HSV 23:22	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 12:00	HSV 14:00	17%	4%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON