Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3598 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3598 DFW 07:06 → IAH 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 1386 DFW 18:13 → IAH 19:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:06	IAH 08:41	8%	2%	0.6%	69%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	8%	3%	0.6%	72%
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:46	IAH 11:03	9%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 2114 United Flight history →	DFW 19:17	IAH 20:50	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:27	IAH 19:01	14%	5%	0.6%	60%
AA 2438 American Flight history →	DFW 09:57	IAH 11:17	14%	5%	0.6%	60%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	DFW 10:04	IAH 11:24	14%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	16%	4%	0.5%	67%
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:33	IAH 15:50	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1397 American	DFW 11:52	IAH 13:08	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5299 PSA	DFW 17:02	IAH 18:16	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	IAH 21:21	21%	7%	0.7%	50%
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	24%	7%	0.7%	48%
AA 1386 American	DFW 18:13	IAH 19:29	25%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON