Today: AA 3691 at 22:39 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet today AA 3691 DFW 22:39 → ICT 00:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 2304 DFW 14:23 → ICT 15:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:39	ICT 00:09	8%	3%	0.7%	67%
MQ 4032 Envoy	DFW 07:24	ICT 08:50	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	ICT 10:55	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
OO 6217 SkyWest	DFW 16:19	ICT 17:47	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6236 SkyWest	DFW 17:44	ICT 19:12	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 5086 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 20:14	ICT 21:41	21%	8%	0.9%	65%
OO 6218 SkyWest	DFW 15:06	ICT 16:44	26%	11%	0.5%	no record
AA 2304 American	DFW 14:23	ICT 15:50	26%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON