Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6468 DFW 09:50 → IDA 11:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 6467 DFW 20:05 → IDA 22:11 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6468 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 09:50	IDA 11:55	11%	6%	0.6%	75%
OO 6223 SkyWest	DFW 11:08	IDA 13:31	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6467 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 20:05	IDA 22:11	14%	6%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON