Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1506 DFW 07:09 → IND 10:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2784 DFW 18:54 → IND 22:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1506 American Flight history →	DFW 07:09	IND 10:35	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 3312 American	DFW 10:05	IND 13:36	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1450 American	DFW 13:11	IND 16:30	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1413 American	DFW 16:13	IND 19:31	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2784 American	DFW 18:54	IND 22:18	16%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON