Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1061 DFW 07:47 → JAX 11:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1460 DFW 15:25 → JAX 19:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1061 American Flight history →	DFW 07:47	JAX 11:25	13%	3%	5.2%	89%
AA 2329 American	DFW 09:38	JAX 13:10	18%	4%	6.8%	no record
AA 1472 American	DFW 12:41	JAX 16:13	20%	8%	5.3%	no record
AA 679 American Flight history →	DFW 18:59	JAX 22:34	22%	9%	2.7%	52%
AA 1460 American	DFW 15:25	JAX 19:05	22%	8%	5.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON