Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 454 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 454 DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 578 DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:09	JFK 17:43	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 19:10	JFK 00:01	13%	3%	0.7%	64%
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	15%	5%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON