Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: F9 1649 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day F9 1649 DFW 07:10 → LAS 08:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2376 DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1649 Frontier	DFW 07:10	LAS 08:25	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1969 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LAS 07:51	8%	3%	0.7%	83%
F9 1961 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:55	LAS 00:07	9%	5%	0.9%	78%
AA 1550 American	DFW 08:39	LAS 09:40	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1051 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 12:02	LAS 13:00	10%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	DFW 10:37	LAS 11:34	12%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 1494 American Flight history →	DFW 09:47	LAS 10:42	13%	4%	0.6%	71%
AA 2371 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	LAS 22:37	14%	5%	0.7%	41%
AA 777 American Flight history →	DFW 12:18	LAS 13:06	16%	6%	0.6%	75%
AA 1573 American	DFW 15:25	LAS 16:24	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1771 American Flight history →	DFW 19:22	LAS 20:11	17%	6%	0.7%	59%
AA 2864 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	LAS 17:48	18%	7%	0.7%	61%
AA 884 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LAS 18:42	18%	7%	0.7%	56%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	LAS 14:28	18%	6%	0.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON