Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 439 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 439 DFW 07:35 → LAX 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2043 DFW 19:02 → LAX 20:18 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 439 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:45	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 3303 American	DFW 06:29	LAX 07:50	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 3317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	LAX 08:35	7%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:05	LAX 17:25	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:03	LAX 15:39	8%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 3181 American	DFW 10:45	LAX 12:09	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 3211 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:07	LAX 23:45	9%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DFW 09:26	LAX 10:51	9%	3%	0.8%	69%
AA 442 American Flight history →	DFW 11:44	LAX 13:06	11%	3%	0.8%	75%
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	11%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 1275 American	DFW 13:07	LAX 14:11	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2125 American	DFW 17:41	LAX 19:03	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 9788 American	DFW 22:02	LAX 23:28	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 16:25	LAX 17:46	15%	5%	0.8%	61%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	DFW 15:22	LAX 16:39	16%	5%	0.8%	52%
AA 2038 American	DFW 21:37	LAX 23:01	17%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 2043 American	DFW 19:02	LAX 20:18	17%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON