Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 14m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415	3h 12m Seattle	SEA 18:35 → LGB 21:14AS 428	10h 12m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	54m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → LGB 14:39AS 717	7h 39m	74%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON