Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3850 DFW 07:09 → LIT 08:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OH 5615 DFW 14:09 → LIT 15:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3850 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:09	LIT 08:26	6%	1%	0.7%	89%
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:41	LIT 13:02	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 4309 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:44	LIT 17:04	10%	2%	0.6%	77%
MQ 3519 Envoy	DFW 19:48	LIT 21:10	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3505 Envoy	DFW 16:54	LIT 18:13	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5599 PSA	DFW 09:52	LIT 11:23	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	DFW 14:09	LIT 15:27	13%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON