Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3643 DFW 08:27 → MAF 09:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 5013 DFW 07:30 → MAF 08:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:27	MAF 09:49	7%	1%	0.9%	85%
MQ 3512 Envoy	DFW 12:36	MAF 13:54	7%	2%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3469 Envoy	DFW 10:05	MAF 11:29	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 3541 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MAF 21:53	8%	2%	0.9%	77%
AA 4172 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:06	MAF 21:29	8%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 4279 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:37	MAF 20:03	8%	3%	1.2%	83%
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:36	MAF 16:53	9%	2%	1.0%	80%
OO 5010 SkyWest	DFW 16:57	MAF 18:20	9%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 5013 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:30	MAF 08:58	11%	4%	0.8%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON