Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: MQ 3522 at 11:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3522 DFW 11:56 → MCI 13:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2267 DFW 18:27 → MCI 20:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3522 Envoy	DFW 11:56	MCI 13:36	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2430 American	DFW 07:17	MCI 09:08	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3331 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	MCI 10:36	10%	3%	0.6%	70%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	DFW 10:31	MCI 12:17	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 595 American	DFW 20:33	MCI 22:14	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1036 American Flight history →	DFW 22:44	MCI 00:23	14%	5%	0.7%	53%
AA 3030 American Flight history →	DFW 15:06	MCI 16:49	15%	6%	0.6%	59%
AA 2267 American Flight history →	DFW 18:27	MCI 20:04	18%	6%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON