Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: F9 4018 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day F9 4018 DFW 09:16 → MCO 13:05 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1692 DFW 13:33 → MCO 17:20 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 4018 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:16	MCO 13:05	12%	3%	1.2%	76%
AA 2119 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	MCO 10:49	13%	3%	1.3%	78%
AA 2151 American	DFW 11:00	MCO 14:43	13%	5%	2.6%	no record
AA 2136 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	MCO 12:22	15%	3%	1.3%	83%
AA 2750 American Flight history →	DFW 09:23	MCO 13:15	15%	3%	1.3%	82%
F9 4192 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 21:50	MCO 01:44	15%	9%	2.7%	79%
AA 1615 American	DFW 12:13	MCO 16:09	18%	8%	2.3%	no record
F9 1952 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:33	MCO 17:18	21%	10%	3.2%	73%
AA 1336 American Flight history →	DFW 19:25	MCO 23:06	25%	10%	4.4%	52%
AA 2791 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	MCO 20:25	25%	10%	5.1%	44%
AA 2974 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	MCO 21:10	28%	11%	5.3%	51%
AA 1692 American	DFW 13:33	MCO 17:20	31%	10%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON