tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 2469 at 18:48, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2469 American Flight history → DFW 18:48 MDT 22:59 33% 10% 1.2% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Harrisburg is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:11 → MDT 14:14DL 1354 7h 54m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:22 → ATL 19:30DL 921 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283 6h 31m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:34 → BOS 19:19AA 2306 3h 55m Boston BOS 23:14 → MDT 00:50 +1AA 4715 · flown by Republic 9h 16m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 12:23 → MDT 14:21DL 3080 6h 36m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 6h 31m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 18:36 → MDT 20:18AA 6073 · flown by Piedmont 7h 23m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:57UA 2160 2h 14m Chicago ORD 19:11 → MDT 22:02UA 1719 6h 47m 94% 76%
AmericanDetails → DFW 13:35 → ORD 16:09AA 1285 3h 15m Chicago ORD 19:24 → MDT 22:29AA 2400 7h 54m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:52 → ORD 07:26AA 1938 54m Chicago ORD 08:20 → MDT 11:13AA 1672 5h 21m 72% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON