Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 36m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 09m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	3h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	7h 26m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746	3h 05m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	99%	58%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	2h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 14m	98%	58%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:35 → MSP 15:15DL 2972	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	96%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON