Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: MQ 3528 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3528 DFW 07:25 → MEM 09:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1133 DFW 19:03 → MEM 20:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3528 Envoy	DFW 07:25	MEM 09:16	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:38	MEM 14:15	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 1935 American Flight history →	DFW 09:39	MEM 11:11	15%	3%	0.6%	64%
AA 2969 American Flight history →	DFW 15:10	MEM 16:43	22%	5%	0.6%	84%
AA 1758 American Flight history →	DFW 21:18	MEM 23:03	22%	6%	0.7%	61%
AA 2153 American Flight history →	DFW 16:38	MEM 18:06	23%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 1133 American	DFW 19:03	MEM 20:47	23%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON