Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3189 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3189 DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1167 DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3189 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	MIA 08:55	6%	2%	0.7%	84%
AA 3290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	MIA 11:11	9%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 1219 American	DFW 08:58	MIA 12:56	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1454 American	DFW 10:20	MIA 14:29	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2090 American Flight history →	DFW 20:31	MIA 00:28	20%	10%	1.9%	56%
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:58	MIA 22:01	22%	13%	2.6%	70%
AA 2206 American Flight history →	DFW 19:45	MIA 23:42	23%	9%	1.8%	56%
AA 2461 American	DFW 13:08	MIA 17:12	25%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 2050 American Flight history →	DFW 17:58	MIA 21:55	25%	10%	1.8%	63%
AA 3308 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	MIA 20:35	28%	10%	1.9%	56%
AA 9784 American	DFW 13:59	MIA 17:57	30%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 942 American	DFW 15:36	MIA 19:36	30%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1167 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	MIA 18:24	31%	9%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON