Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 2879 at 10:02, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2879 American Flight history →	DFW 10:02	MRY 12:03	18%	5%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	DFW 19:24 → SAN 20:29AS 780	1h 57m San Diego	SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	93%	80%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 07m Denver	DEN 19:27 → MRY 21:17UA 1822	6h 27m	86%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON