Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1276 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1276 DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3149 DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1276 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:55	MSP 09:23	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:35	MSP 15:15	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	MSP 09:41	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1629 Delta	DFW 15:12	MSP 17:36	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1625 Delta	DFW 18:49	MSP 21:16	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3224 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:27	MSP 18:19	11%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 1668 American	DFW 12:01	MSP 14:23	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2406 American Flight history →	DFW 14:27	MSP 17:01	16%	6%	0.6%	62%
AA 2806 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	MSP 21:21	18%	6%	0.7%	58%
AA 3149 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	MSP 23:57	18%	5%	0.7%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON