Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1650 DFW 10:02 → MSY 11:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2237 DFW 18:36 → MSY 20:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1650 American	DFW 10:02	MSY 11:41	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2627 American	DFW 13:31	MSY 15:04	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1455 American Flight history →	DFW 21:50	MSY 23:29	19%	6%	0.9%	59%
AA 3254 American Flight history →	DFW 16:27	MSY 18:00	21%	7%	0.8%	56%
AA 2237 American Flight history →	DFW 18:36	MSY 20:15	22%	7%	0.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON