Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4946 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4946 DFW 07:14 → OKC 08:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1458 DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4946 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:14	OKC 08:28	8%	3%	0.5%	100%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	DFW 09:10	OKC 10:20	11%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 3099 American	DFW 10:28	OKC 11:42	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	DFW 13:20	OKC 14:29	16%	8%	0.7%	77%
AA 3164 American	DFW 13:57	OKC 15:08	16%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	DFW 16:20	OKC 17:32	18%	10%	0.7%	27%
AA 2832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:59	OKC 16:10	19%	10%	0.7%	65%
AA 2734 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	OKC 18:41	22%	10%	0.7%	47%
AA 1458 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	OKC 22:33	23%	9%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON