Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:10 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 2823 at 09:26 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet today AA 2823 DFW 09:26 → OMA 11:26 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 2167 DFW 18:42 → OMA 20:41 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 2823 American Flight history →	DFW 09:26	OMA 11:26	18%	4%	0.2%	70%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	DFW 14:01	OMA 16:03	22%	5%	0.2%	75%
AA 2628 American Flight history →	DFW 21:59	OMA 23:59	23%	8%	0.9%	52%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	DFW 17:02	OMA 19:05	33%	6%	0.2%	54%
AA 2167 American	DFW 18:42	OMA 20:41	35%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON