Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1820 DFW 08:15 → ONT 09:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 3006 DFW 17:46 → ONT 19:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1820 American Flight history →	DFW 08:15	ONT 09:42	9%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	DFW 12:24	ONT 13:48	10%	4%	0.7%	84%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:35	ONT 17:16	11%	5%	0.8%	79%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	DFW 10:39	ONT 11:55	12%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 2147 American	DFW 18:54	ONT 20:26	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1695 American	DFW 21:25	ONT 22:52	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3006 American Flight history →	DFW 17:46	ONT 19:04	18%	5%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON