Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2999 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 2999 DFW 05:52 → ORD 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 2257 DFW 17:42 → ORD 20:03 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2999 American Flight history →	DFW 05:52	ORD 08:35	5%	2%	0.7%	76%
UA 1695 United Flight history →	DFW 07:08	ORD 09:50	6%	3%	0.5%	82%
AA 1938 American Flight history →	DFW 04:59	ORD 07:36	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	7%	3%	0.5%	74%
UA 1634 United Flight history →	DFW 10:34	ORD 13:04	8%	3%	0.5%	83%
AA 1858 American	DFW 07:30	ORD 10:05	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 328 American Flight history →	DFW 08:24	ORD 10:52	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1251 American	DFW 10:11	ORD 12:41	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	11%	4%	0.6%	63%
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	12%	4%	0.6%	68%
AA 3790 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:36	ORD 22:01	12%	3%	0.7%	66%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	13%	4%	0.6%	66%
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	13%	4%	0.7%	63%
F9 3242 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:49	ORD 20:32	13%	6%	0.8%	63%
AA 1620 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	ORD 23:52	14%	3%	0.7%	56%
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 11:45	ORD 14:04	15%	3%	0.6%	72%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	16%	5%	0.6%	60%
UA 2275 United	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:16	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 16:38	ORD 19:10	18%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 2656 American	DFW 18:27	ORD 20:54	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3264 American	DFW 15:46	ORD 18:11	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2257 American	DFW 17:42	ORD 20:03	21%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON