tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:36 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 1379 at 18:42, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1379 American DFW 18:42 ORF 22:44 31% 8% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:21 → ATL 19:28DL 921 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 23:03 → ORF 00:45 +1DL 2338 7h 24m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:29 → ATL 14:37DL 961 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → ORF 18:27DL 1346 5h 58m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240 1h 11m Dulles IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677 5h 29m 90% 80%
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 20:47 → ORF 22:29DL 2731 7h 39m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:00 → LGA 15:41AA 2922 3h 59m New York LGA 19:40 → ORF 21:20AA 4589 · flown by Republic 9h 20m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248 2h 35m Denver DEN 17:30 → ORF 23:14UA 680 8h 30m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 3h 48m Charlotte CLT 19:24 → ORF 20:47AA 5622 · flown by PSA 7h 52m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → DFW 12:40 → DCA 16:45AA 1414 3h 30m Washington DCA 20:15 → ORF 21:25AA 5662 · flown by PSA 7h 45m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON