Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 9832 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 9832 DFW 06:31 → PHL 10:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1945 DFW 16:42 → PHL 21:08 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 9832 American	DFW 06:31	PHL 10:56	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 415 American Flight history →	DFW 07:30	PHL 11:52	7%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 2255 American	DFW 08:28	PHL 12:52	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 402 American Flight history →	DFW 09:38	PHL 14:00	11%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 3147 American	DFW 12:12	PHL 16:42	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 2970 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 10:06	PHL 14:50	13%	5%	0.9%	72%
AA 891 American	DFW 13:57	PHL 18:17	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2213 American	DFW 14:24	PHL 18:45	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3242 American Flight history →	DFW 18:35	PHL 22:57	16%	5%	0.7%	47%
AA 2542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:19	PHL 00:35	17%	5%	0.7%	56%
AA 1945 American Flight history →	DFW 16:42	PHL 21:08	18%	6%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON