Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 13 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2905 DFW 10:40 → PHX 11:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2108 DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2905 American	DFW 10:40	PHX 11:24	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 359 American	DFW 11:35	PHX 12:16	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 474 American Flight history →	DFW 07:08	PHX 07:34	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 520 American Flight history →	DFW 10:22	PHX 11:03	13%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 336 American Flight history →	DFW 12:28	PHX 13:13	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
F9 3283 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 21:00	PHX 21:53	14%	6%	0.7%	80%
F9 3971 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 12:50	PHX 13:34	15%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 1548 American Flight history →	DFW 13:34	PHX 14:13	15%	5%	0.6%	92%
AA 1232 American	DFW 16:28	PHX 17:26	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2047 American Flight history →	DFW 17:49	PHX 18:48	15%	6%	0.6%	76%
AA 3232 American	DFW 20:55	PHX 21:37	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2942 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	PHX 22:16	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
AA 2108 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	PHX 14:57	19%	5%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON