Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1583 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1583 DFW 07:07 → PIT 11:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 680 DFW 19:16 → PIT 23:04 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1583 American Flight history →	DFW 07:07	PIT 11:01	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	DFW 10:52	PIT 14:38	12%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	DFW 13:44	PIT 17:36	16%	5%	0.6%	72%
AA 680 American Flight history →	DFW 19:16	PIT 23:04	20%	6%	0.6%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON