Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3982 at 09:07 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3982 DFW 09:07 → PNS 11:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OH 5554 DFW 18:34 → PNS 20:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:07	PNS 11:01	12%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 2328 American Flight history →	DFW 12:55	PNS 14:49	19%	8%	0.9%	73%
OH 5554 PSA	DFW 18:34	PNS 20:23	30%	10%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON