Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3768 DFW 08:20 → RAP 09:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3532 DFW 15:11 → RAP 16:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3768 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:20	RAP 09:47	6%	1%	0.7%	90%
AA 3567 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:03	RAP 21:31	7%	2%	0.7%	75%
MQ 3788 Envoy	DFW 10:44	RAP 12:20	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 3532 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:11	RAP 16:33	8%	2%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON