Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: F9 3330 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day F9 3330 DFW 08:50 → RDU 12:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 979 DFW 17:09 → RDU 20:56 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3330 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:50	RDU 12:51	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	DFW 09:36	RDU 13:34	11%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	DFW 12:21	RDU 16:13	13%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	RDU 23:48	18%	6%	0.7%	58%
AA 979 American Flight history →	DFW 17:09	RDU 20:56	20%	6%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON