Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3778 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 3778 DFW 07:15 → RIC 11:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 3037 DFW 18:55 → RIC 22:57 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:15	RIC 11:01	4%	1%	0.6%	100%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	DFW 10:49	RIC 14:41	10%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 3037 American Flight history →	DFW 18:55	RIC 22:57	17%	5%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON