Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2740 DFW 09:31 → RSW 13:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 2736 DFW 13:46 → RSW 17:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2740 American Flight history →	DFW 09:31	RSW 13:43	14%	4%	1.8%	77%
AA 1267 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	RSW 22:38	20%	9%	2.7%	57%
AA 2736 American Flight history →	DFW 13:46	RSW 17:30	23%	7%	2.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON