Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1794 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1794 DFW 07:12 → SAN 08:23 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1243 DFW 19:02 → SAN 20:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1794 American	DFW 07:12	SAN 08:23	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2034 American Flight history →	DFW 09:31	SAN 10:55	14%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 3109 American	DFW 10:56	SAN 12:19	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1769 American	DFW 13:20	SAN 14:30	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2266 American	DFW 17:12	SAN 18:29	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1511 American	DFW 20:46	SAN 22:04	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 780 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 19:24	SAN 20:29	22%	5%	0.7%	48%
AS 551 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 14:52	SAN 15:54	23%	6%	0.6%	58%
AA 1789 American	DFW 18:04	SAN 19:19	24%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1243 American Flight history →	DFW 19:02	SAN 20:03	24%	6%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON