Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3899 at 17:22 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 3899 DFW 17:22 → SAT 18:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 546 DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3899 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:22	SAT 18:32	10%	2%	0.7%	62%
AA 1836 American Flight history →	DFW 07:38	SAT 08:46	14%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 791 American	DFW 13:40	SAT 14:57	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2759 American Flight history →	DFW 08:53	SAT 09:59	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 2768 American	DFW 11:55	SAT 13:08	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 413 American Flight history →	DFW 10:38	SAT 11:49	18%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	SAT 20:09	19%	6%	0.7%	59%
AA 1961 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	SAT 15:34	20%	6%	0.7%	67%
AA 2374 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	SAT 17:49	22%	8%	0.7%	53%
AA 1406 American Flight history →	DFW 20:48	SAT 22:00	24%	7%	0.7%	59%
AA 3097 American Flight history →	DFW 21:56	SAT 23:04	25%	6%	0.7%	51%
AA 546 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	SAT 21:03	26%	8%	0.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON