Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:37 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: MQ 4197 at 15:38 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–30%.

Safest bet today MQ 4197 DFW 15:38 → SAV 19:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1092 DFW 19:17 → SAV 22:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 4197 Envoy	DFW 15:38	SAV 19:13	16%	2%	0.3%	no record
AA 2048 American Flight history →	DFW 10:54	SAV 14:28	17%	6%	0.5%	78%
AA 1092 American Flight history →	DFW 19:17	SAV 22:50	30%	7%	0.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON