Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 10:02, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1822 American	DFW 10:02	SBA 11:36	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:08 → SBA 18:16DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	7h 46m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	95%	90%
American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	3h 27m Phoenix	PHX 11:01 → SBA 12:49AA 3256	7h 41m	99%	86%
American Details →	DFW 13:34 → PHX 14:13AA 1548	2h 51m Phoenix	PHX 17:04 → SBA 18:49AA 1855	7h 15m	100%	83%
United Details →	DFW 07:28 → SFO 09:20UA 790	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578	6h 24m	95%	80%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 12m Denver	DEN 19:32 → SBA 21:22UA 8145	6h 32m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON