Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3791 at 09:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3791 DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2049 DFW 15:36 → SDF 18:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	SDF 12:48	5%	1%	0.6%	94%
MQ 4051 Envoy	DFW 07:57	SDF 11:19	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:06	SDF 17:27	9%	2%	0.6%	74%
AA 49 American	DFW 07:48	SDF 11:01	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2813 American	DFW 12:12	SDF 15:22	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2212 American	DFW 19:25	SDF 22:47	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2049 American Flight history →	DFW 15:36	SDF 18:49	23%	9%	0.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON