Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 804 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 804 DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2009 DFW 21:10 → SEA 23:17 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 804 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:30	SEA 08:46	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
AS 543 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 06:24	SEA 08:45	15%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 1806 Delta	DFW 17:54	SEA 20:03	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 415 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 13:02	SEA 15:23	16%	3%	0.6%	83%
AS 322 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 18:03	SEA 20:24	19%	3%	0.7%	56%
AS 321 Alaska	DFW 16:02	SEA 18:07	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 707 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SEA 09:25	20%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 717 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	SEA 13:03	22%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 767 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	SEA 10:50	22%	4%	0.7%	74%
AS 365 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 09:00	SEA 11:20	23%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 757 American Flight history →	DFW 12:17	SEA 14:31	23%	5%	0.6%	75%
AA 1483 American	DFW 17:30	SEA 20:01	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 727 American Flight history →	DFW 14:33	SEA 16:47	27%	6%	0.6%	57%
AA 2009 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	SEA 23:17	27%	5%	0.7%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817	5h 58m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	DFW 14:31 → SLC 16:18DL 2800	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	6h 02m	91%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON