Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3952 DFW 10:57 → SGF 12:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 4311 DFW 16:47 → SGF 18:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3952 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:57	SGF 12:28	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
AA 4331 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:43	SGF 09:23	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
AA 4328 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:33	SGF 11:01	5%	1%	0.6%	86%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:36	SGF 14:03	6%	1%	0.6%	86%
MQ 9875 Envoy	DFW 23:22	SGF 00:58	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 3671 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:01	SGF 20:31	8%	2%	0.6%	70%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:13	SGF 15:37	8%	1%	0.6%	85%
MQ 3591 Envoy	DFW 17:40	SGF 19:05	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4311 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:47	SGF 18:10	9%	2%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON