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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4009 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 4009 DFW 08:16 → SHV 09:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 6410 DFW 17:02 → SHV 18:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 08:16 SHV 09:24 5% 1% 0.7% 92%
OO 6364 SkyWest DFW 08:30 SHV 09:42 7% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 9911 SkyWest DFW 07:03 SHV 08:12 8% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 6331 SkyWest DFW 10:13 SHV 11:31 8% 5% 0.6% no record
MQ 3479 Envoy DFW 12:37 SHV 13:43 8% 2% 0.7% no record
OO 6347 SkyWest DFW 10:08 SHV 11:18 10% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 4902 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DFW 22:23 SHV 23:20 10% 3% 0.6% 91%
AA 6245 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DFW 19:14 SHV 20:25 12% 5% 0.6% 74%
OH 5372 PSA DFW 12:51 SHV 13:57 12% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 6464 SkyWest DFW 17:09 SHV 18:19 13% 6% 0.6% no record
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DFW 17:02 SHV 18:04 16% 5% 0.6% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON