Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2046 DFW 09:09 → SJC 10:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 364 DFW 20:20 → SJC 22:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2046 American Flight history →	DFW 09:09	SJC 10:52	8%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	DFW 12:13	SJC 13:57	10%	3%	0.7%	75%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 20:20	SJC 22:13	15%	4%	0.7%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	5h 34m	89%	79%
Alaska Details →	DFW 19:24 → SAN 20:29AS 780	1h 10m San Diego	SAN 21:39 → SJC 22:41AS 1449	5h 17m	80%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON