Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1291 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1291 DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 558 DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1291 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:45	SLC 09:31	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:30	SLC 14:20	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	DFW 14:31	SLC 16:18	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 1539 Delta	DFW 18:06	SLC 19:58	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1878 American	DFW 08:45	SLC 10:33	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1871 American	DFW 11:18	SLC 13:03	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1456 American Flight history →	DFW 14:46	SLC 16:28	20%	6%	0.6%	62%
AA 2507 American Flight history →	DFW 21:49	SLC 23:38	22%	6%	0.7%	52%
AA 2993 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	SLC 22:59	22%	6%	0.7%	47%
AA 558 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	SLC 20:34	23%	7%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON